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<article article-type="research-article" dtd-version="1.3" xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xmlns:xsi="http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema-instance" xml:lang="ru"><front><journal-meta><journal-id journal-id-type="publisher-id">kamniro</journal-id><journal-title-group><journal-title xml:lang="ru">Исследования водных биологических ресурсов Камчатки и северо-западной части Тихого океана</journal-title><trans-title-group xml:lang="en"><trans-title>The researches of the aquatic biological resources of Kamchatka and the North-West Part of the Pacific Ocean</trans-title></trans-title-group></journal-title-group><issn pub-type="ppub">2072-8212</issn><issn pub-type="epub">2782-6236</issn><publisher><publisher-name>«КамчатНИРО»</publisher-name></publisher></journal-meta><article-meta><article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.15853/2072-8212.2019.55.72-91</article-id><article-id custom-type="elpub" pub-id-type="custom">kamniro-84</article-id><article-categories><subj-group subj-group-type="heading"><subject>Research Article</subject></subj-group><subj-group subj-group-type="section-heading" xml:lang="ru"><subject>ОРИГИНАЛЬНЫЕ НАУЧНЫЕ СТАТЬИ</subject></subj-group><subj-group subj-group-type="section-heading" xml:lang="en"><subject>FULL ARTICLES</subject></subj-group></article-categories><title-group><article-title>К ОЦЕНКЕ И ПРОГНОЗУ СОСТОЯНИЯ ЗАПАСА СЕВЕРНОЙ КРЕВЕТКИ PANDALUS EOUS MAKAROV, 1935 У ЮГО-ЗАПАДНОЙ КАМЧАТКИ</article-title><trans-title-group xml:lang="en"><trans-title>ON STOCK ASSESSMENT AND FORECASTING THE STOCK ABUNDANCE OF NORTH SHRIMP PANDALUS EOUS MAKAROV, 1935 NEAR SOUTH-WESTERN KAMCHATKA</trans-title></trans-title-group></title-group><contrib-group><contrib contrib-type="author" corresp="yes"><name-alternatives><name name-style="eastern" xml:lang="ru"><surname>Ильин</surname><given-names>О. И.</given-names></name><name name-style="western" xml:lang="en"><surname>Ilyin</surname><given-names>O. I.</given-names></name></name-alternatives><email xlink:type="simple">ilin.o.i@kamniro.ru</email><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff-1"/></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author" corresp="yes"><name-alternatives><name name-style="eastern" xml:lang="ru"><surname>Михайлова</surname><given-names>О. Г.</given-names></name><name name-style="western" xml:lang="en"><surname>Mikhaylova</surname><given-names>O. G.</given-names></name></name-alternatives><email xlink:type="simple">mikhailova.o.g@kamniro.ru</email><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff-1"/></contrib></contrib-group><aff-alternatives id="aff-1"><aff xml:lang="ru"><institution>Камчатский филиал Всероссийского научно-исследовательского&#13;
института рыбного хозяйства и океанографии («КамчатНИРО»)</institution><country>Россия</country></aff><aff xml:lang="en"><institution>Kamchatka Branch of Russian Research Institute of Fisheries and Oceanography (“KamchatNIRO”)</institution><country>Russian Federation</country></aff></aff-alternatives><pub-date pub-type="collection"><year>2019</year></pub-date><pub-date pub-type="epub"><day>21</day><month>05</month><year>2020</year></pub-date><volume>0</volume><issue>55</issue><fpage>72</fpage><lpage>91</lpage><permissions><copyright-statement>Copyright &amp;#x00A9; Ильин О.И., Михайлова О.Г., 2020</copyright-statement><copyright-year>2020</copyright-year><copyright-holder xml:lang="ru">Ильин О.И., Михайлова О.Г.</copyright-holder><copyright-holder xml:lang="en">Ilyin O.I., Mikhaylova O.G.</copyright-holder><license xml:lang="ru" license-type="creative-commons-attribution" xlink:href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/" xlink:type="simple"><license-p>Данная работа распространяется под лицензией Creative Commons Attribution 4.0.</license-p></license><license xml:lang="en" license-type="creative-commons-attribution" xlink:href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/" xlink:type="simple"><license-p>This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.</license-p></license></permissions><self-uri xlink:href="https://kamniro.elpub.ru/jour/article/view/84">https://kamniro.elpub.ru/jour/article/view/84</self-uri><abstract><p>В настоящей работе при некоторых предположениях относительно роста северной креветки предпринимается попытка методом расщепления смеси распределений определить ее возрастной состав по размерной структуре. Оцениваются средняя длина, средняя масса и доля особей промыслового размера северной креветки по возрастным группам. Полученные результаты используются для моделирования динамики и последующего вероятностного прогноза промыслового запаса и возможного вылова северной креветки у юго-западного побережья Камчатки. Для оценки запасов применяются продукционная модель Шефера, статистическая когортная модель и модель динамики функциональных групп типа «CSA».</p></abstract><trans-abstract xml:lang="en"><p>Based on some assumptions about growth of north shrimp we made an attempt in this research to evaluate age composition of the crustacean from size structure using the method of mixture separation. Average length, average weight and part of individuals of commercial size were evaluated in different age groups. Obtained results were used to simulate dynamics and consequent likelihood forecast of the commercial stock and total allowed catch of north shrimp near South-Western coast of Kamchatka. Shaefer production model, statistical cohort model and model of the “CSA”-type functional groups dynamics were used for the stock abundance assessment.</p></trans-abstract><kwd-group xml:lang="ru"><kwd>СЕВЕРНАЯ КРЕВЕТКА</kwd><kwd>ОЦЕНКА ЗАПАСА</kwd><kwd>ПРОДУКЦИОННАЯ МОДЕЛЬ ШЕФЕРА</kwd><kwd>КОГОРТНАЯ МОДЕЛЬ</kwd><kwd>МОДЕЛЬ «CSA»</kwd><kwd>ВОЗРАСТНОЙ СОСТАВ</kwd></kwd-group><kwd-group xml:lang="en"><kwd>NORTH SHRIMP</kwd><kwd>STOCK ASSESSMENT</kwd><kwd>SHAEFER PRODUCTION MODEL</kwd><kwd>COHORT MODEL</kwd><kwd>“CSA” MODEL</kwd><kwd>AGE COMPOSITION</kwd></kwd-group></article-meta></front><back><ref-list><title>References</title><ref id="cit1"><label>1</label><citation-alternatives><mixed-citation xml:lang="ru">Бабаян В.К. 2000. Предосторожный подход к оценке общего допустимого улова (ОДУ). Анализ и рекомендации по применению. М.: ВНИРО.192 с.</mixed-citation><mixed-citation xml:lang="en">Babayan V.K. 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